Italian real estate market: inflation and price growth negatively affect transactions

The impact of inflation and rising house prices is having a negative impact on the Italian real estate market. A significant decline in transactions is expected in the fourth quarter of the year. According to the Reopla report, real estate transactions are expected to decline by 8% year-on-year between September and December 2023. A total of about 192,177 transactions are expected.

Milan remains the leader in the number of real estate transactions

Milan remains the leader in the number of real estate transactions, with an expected 10,920 transactions in the fourth quarter, more than twice as many as cities such as Rome (4,813) and Turin (4,041). Bari (3,396), Bologna (2,386), Genoa (2,199) and Naples (2,051) follow not far behind. Palermo (1,699), Florence (1,298) and Catania (1,014) round out the list of Italy's top cities.

The impact of inflation and interest rates on the real estate market

The fourth quarter is traditionally considered a favorable period for real estate transactions in Italy. However, rising inflation and interest rates are hampering the sector's performance, leading to a decline in transactions. In 2021, for example, a peak of 212,740 transactions was recorded during the same period.

According to Patrick Albertengo, co-founder and CEO of Reopla, despite rising interest rates, the contraction in the real estate market will continue to follow the historical trend.

The Reopla survey and forecasts for this year

The Reopla study is based on data collected by AgentPricing, a service widely used by Italian real estate agencies for property valuation. The analysis takes into account real estate transactions in the fourth quarter from 2011 to 2023 and forecasts the situation in the current year.

Regional differences in real estate transactions

Milan is the city with the highest number of fall real estate transactions, but is expected to decrease by 11% compared to 2022. On the other hand, provinces expect a 23% decline. Prices per square meter in both the city and the province increased between 2016 and 2022, reaching a peak of €4,289 per square meter in Milan and €1,667 in the province.

In contrast, Rome recorded a 10% and 12% increase in real estate transactions in the province compared to the city, respectively, compared to 2022. Prices per square meter in Rome have been decreasing over time, from €3,062 in 2016 to €2,768 in 2022. Bologna, Bari and Naples also saw a decrease in real estate transactions.