Real estate market: Bank of Italy - slowing housing price dynamics, but weak demand.

According to the latest quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Italy - Conjuncture Survey of the Housing Market in Italy, in which 1,501 realtors participated from January 8 to February 5, the residential real estate market in Italy remains almost stable in the fourth quarter, with falling demand and a decrease in the percentage of agencies that can sell at least one home.

The main inhibiting factor remains financing conditions, the rate of which has risen due to the ECB rate hike: in a third of cases, difficulty in obtaining a mortgage becomes the main reason for terminating a sales contract, and the share of purchases financed through mortgages is at a historic low.

At the same time, according to operators, there are visible signs of possible improvement early this year. The rental housing market remains tight, with rising rents supported by strong demand and shrinking supply, partly related to owners' preference for short-term rentals.

According to the Bank of Italy, the conjunctural dynamics of house prices slowed down in the fourth quarter, based on realtors' assessments. Stability was preferred (65% of realtors), while the proportion of operators reporting price increases continued to decline, falling to 9%, about 15 percentage points below the peak recorded in the first quarter of 2022, while 25% of operators report a fall.

Overall, the average price reduction from the seller's initial asking price remains low at 8.6%, 5 percentage points below the pre-pandemic average but within the range of values of recent quarters.

The time between closing a deal and sale remained slightly above the lowest value recorded since the survey began in the first quarter of 2023. The percentage of agencies that sold at least one home decreased from a year ago for the fourth consecutive quarter, while remaining well above the pre-pandemic average (87% compared to 72% between 2012 and 2019 and 81% in the third quarter).

According to the report, the percentage of operators whose outstanding orders increased between the third and fourth quarters of the year increased compared to the corresponding period in 2022, remaining well below the percentage of those whose numbers decreased.