Real estate market in 2023: data from notaries in 9 largest cities

In addition to analyzing the real estate market in the first half of 2023 with forecasts for next year, the Italian National Council of Notaries has also published a report on the nine largest Italian cities. Let's take a look at how the real estate market developed in the first six months of this year in the cities of Rome, Milan, Naples, Bari, Bologna, Turin, Palermo, Verona and Florence.

Sales and mortgages in Milan

In the first half of 2023, residential real estate sales fell by 8.4% compared to the same period in 2022. The decline is noted primarily in the primary housing market in both private transactions, which declined 14%, and developer transactions, down 10.9%. The level of decline is lower in the secondary housing market, where sales between individuals fell by 2.9% and purchases from developers by 3%.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first half of 2023 are down 26.4% compared to the same period in 2022. Accordingly, the number of individuals who took out a mortgage also decreased (-26.2%), while the share of the 18-35 age group also decreased by 28%. The decrease in capital provided was 35.9% (from 7,379,640,281 in the first half of 2022 to 4,736,004,600 in the first half of 2023). The difference between these two percentages is due to the overall reduction in all mortgages granted, especially in the capital range of 300,000 to 350,000 euros. There was a 14% increase in the number of mortgages being replaced in the territory in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022.

Turin, sales and mortgages

In the first half of 2023, residential real estate sales in Turin decreased by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2022. The market for primary homes purchased from developers is experiencing a real crash, down 41%, while purchases of primary homes between individuals are down 6.8%. At the same time, performance in the secondary housing market between individuals increased by 5.3%, while purchases from developers decreased by 7.2%.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first six months of 2023 were down 31.5% compared to the first six months of 2022. Looking at a monthly comparison, the decline starts at -20% in January 2023 compared to January 2022 and reaches -34% in June 2023 compared to June 2022. Accordingly, the number of individuals who took out a mortgage also decreased (-32.5%), while the share of the 18-35 age group decreased by 30%, 36-45 by 32.5% and 46-55 by 36.61%. The decrease in capital provided was 36% (from 1,541,061,396 in the first half of 2022 to 984,765,079 in the first half of 2023). The difference between these two percentages is due to the overall reduction in all mortgages granted, especially in the capital range between 200,000 and 250,000 euros (-52.65%). In Turin, replacement mortgages increased by 9.09% in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022.

The sales and mortgage market in Verona

The residential real estate sales market in the City of Verona decreased by 3.7% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The primary housing market is experiencing the biggest decline, down 7.1% in private party transactions, while primary housing transactions from developers are down 3.4%. The secondary home sales market between individuals shows an increase of 0.5%, while purchases of secondary homes from builders fell by 1.9%.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first six months of 2023 are down 25.6% compared to the first six months of 2022. Looking at a monthly comparison, the decline starts at -0.9% in January 2023 compared to January 2022 and reaches -32.2% in June 2023 compared to June 2022. Accordingly, the number of individuals who took out a mortgage also decreased (-28.5%), while the share of the age group 18-35 years decreased by 28% and 36-45 years by 32.2%. The decrease in capital provided was 32.8% (from 967,362,161 in the first half of 2022 to 650,196,766 in the first half of 2023).

Bologna, sales and mortgages

The first half of 2023 also saw a 4.6% decrease in residential real estate sales in Bologna compared to the same period in 2022. In fact, while transactions between individuals fell by 4.3%, home purchases from developers collapsed by 33.1%. Looking at the secondary housing market in the first half of 2023, transaction rates between individuals increased by 0.9%, while purchases of secondary homes from developers decreased by 11.3%.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first half of 2023 were down 30% compared to the same period in 2022. While the year-to-date decline in January 2023 was -11.9%, the decline peaked at -36.1% in February and then stabilized in subsequent months at an average of -30%. Accordingly, the number of individuals who took out a mortgage also decreased (-27.9%), while the share of the 18-35 age group also decreased by 27%. Despite a 30% reduction in the number of mortgages (from 6,376 in H1 2022 to 4,461 in H1 2023), the reduction in capital provided was 33.3% (from 1,100,457,702 in H1 2022 to 733,692,327 in H1 2023). The difference between these two percentages is due to the overall reduction in mortgages granted with a double-digit decline, with a peak of -47.4% for loans between 400,000 and 450,000 euros. Substitutable mortgages increased significantly: in the territory of Bologna, they increased by 22.7% in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022.

Sales and mortgages in Florence

In the first half of 2023, residential real estate sales in Florence decreased by 10.3% compared to the same period in 2022. In fact, while primary residence transactions between individuals fell by 12.9%, the decline in purchases from builders was -24.6%. Looking at the secondary housing market, the first half of 2023 shows a more moderate decline: -5.2% for transactions between private individuals and -12.2% for purchases of secondary housing from developers.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first half of 2023 are down 32.6% compared to the same period in 2022. June was the month when the decline in mortgages peaked at -43.7% compared to the same period last year. Accordingly, the number of individuals who took out a mortgage also decreased (-30.63%), while the share of the 18-35 age group decreased by 34.8%. Despite a 32.6% decrease in the number of mortgages (from 5,064 in the first half of 2022 to 3,413 in the first half of 2023), there was a 32.1% decrease in capital provided (from 863,445,374 in the first half of 2022 to 586,401,596 in the first half of 2023). The difference between these two percentages is due to the reduction in all mortgages granted with double digits, with a peak of -53.3% for loans between 350,000 and 399,000 euros. Substituted mortgages also fell: in the Florence area, they fell by 10% in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2022.

Sales and mortgages in Naples in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2023, residential real estate sales in Naples decreased by -7.3% compared to the same period in 2022. In particular, transactions of primary housing between individuals decreased by 16.5%, while sales of primary housing from developers decreased by 17.9%. Looking at the secondary housing market in the first half of 2023, transactions of secondary homes purchased between individuals increased by 4.9%, while purchases of secondary homes from developers decreased by 5.7%.

Mortgages for home purchases in the first half of 2023 were down 31.5% compared to the same period in 2022. June was the month when the decline in