Sretta is committed to populism

Thailand's new prime minister has had a rough start. Sretta Tavisin, a former real estatedeveloper and political newcomer, became head of government in August, but his ascendancy has been marked by contrarians. His Pheu Thai Party collaborated with the country's military-backed and monarchist elite, thus helping to prevent the victory of the more popular and progressive Forward Movement Party. His first month in office has also been marked by tragedy, with a 14-year-old gunman killing two people and injuring five others at a popular shopping center in Bangkok.

In the first few weeks of his premiership, meanwhile, Sretta has sought to define it around economic populism, comparing Thailand's declining economy, hit by a pandemic and falling investor confidence, to a "sick man" in need of healing. But political observers worry that its proposed measures and statements, though intended to win public confidence, are either symbolic or, worse, short-term.

"Some measures designed to ease economic tensions in the short term are not sustainable in the long term," said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute think tank in Singapore. "It's the same as putting a bandage on a wound without treating it. "

Since his counter-version ascension to prime minister, the 61-year-old Sretta has sought to show his leadership as benign, urging the military to set aside its purchases for "urgent efforts to help the people" and donating his salary to charity.

"It's probably even some act of accumulating merit," said Mark S. Kogan, an associate professor at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Japan, citing the Buddhist practice of accumulating good karmic deeds.

Price cuts and financial promises

But perhaps most significant are the populist domestic policies that have defined Sretta's first month in office: lower electricity and fuel prices, a three-year debt moratorium for farmers, and the flagship Pheu Thai campaign promise of a digital wallet scheme to distribute 10,000 baht to every Thai over the age of 16. It is expected to be launched next year and embedded in the economy, stimulating domestic spending.

When Sretta presented the long-awaited policy statement containing all these proposals in Parliament on Sept. 11, politicians from all political parties noted its lack of a clear plan of action. Critics said that despite many urgent initiatives to boost economic growth, the overall program lacks concrete plans to achieve long-term national development.

Sirikanya Tansakul of the progressive Forward Movement Party compared the policies to "applying steroids instead of medicine to cure economic ills." And Jurin Laksanavisit of the conservative Democratic Party said Sretta's ambitions do not match what Pheu Thai promised during the election campaign.

The shortcomings of populist politics

Experts warn that Sretta's policies, unaccompanied by a long-term economic strategy, will do little to address Thailand's deep-rooted socio-economic problems. For example, it will be difficult to keep energy prices low unless prices are renegotiated and the debt moratorium for farmers has been criticized for not addressing the main problem of farmers' debt - their low income.

"Economic stimulus is extremely important," Cogan said. "But this type of incentive is necessary and sustainable?" "It should be supplemented with additional.... policy changes that will boost economic growth. And I have yet to see any policy that offers anything beyond short-term stimulus," he adds.

Similar to Thaksin's policies

According to experts, Sretta is unlikely to repeat failures of this magnitude in politics, but his economic proposals strongly resemble the same Thaksin-style populism that prioritizes political gains over economic expediency. The problem for Sretta, however, is that Thai society has already expressed its interest in systemic democratic reforms rather than the typical economic promises familiar to Pheu Thai.

Titipol Phakdiwanich, dean of the political science department at Ubon Ratchathani University, believes Pheu Thai "still doesn't understand" how far her populist economic policy program can go in salvaging the reputation of a party that has lost much after finishing second in May's election, which it expected to win by a wide margin. "If it worked, they would have won easily by now with the promise of 10,000 baht in the digital wallet," Titipol said.

The demands for political reform

The decades under the military-elite-backed rule of former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha have been marked by a historic wave of protests for democracy and against the monarchy, and the May elections, in which the opposition Forward Movement and Pheu Thai parties decisively won a majority and second place, respectively, were widely seen as a mandate against the military elites that have long dominated Thai politics.

But Pheu Thai lost much of its remaining support when it decided to abandon its initial anti-military alliance with the Forward Movement and form a coalition government with those parties that have always been allied with the military, which Pheu Thai supporters have historically opposed, including deadly protests in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

"Now public opinion has changed," and there are "more demands for political reform," Titipol said. "That's the main thing they need to resolve and focus on, instead of ignoring it and focusing only on economic policy. "

The political reforms that Pheu Thai has previously promised with her progressive allies are proving difficult to achieve with her new coalition partners. While she has jointly promised with MoveOn to end compulsory military service, the latest plans announced by the Defense Ministry only reduce the conscription quota with the "aim" of eventually moving to a voluntary army.

From his side, Sretta announced Tuesday the formation of a committee to change the military-rental constitution - also one