Nearly 1 Million Deals in 2025 — Italy’s Property Market Sees Mortgage Surge

A busier Italy real estate market in 2025 — what the numbers say

Italy real estate recorded a busier year in 2025, driven by stronger mortgage activity even as trading patterns varied by quarter and region. According to Istat data, the number of notarised sales and property exchange agreements reached 986,940 for the year — a 3.9% rise on 2024 — while mortgage-secured loans climbed sharply to 382,389, an increase of 15.5%.

That combination of more transactions and a jump in mortgage activity is encouraging for buyers and investors, but the headline hides important regional and sectoral nuances. In this analysis we break down the quarterly swings, regional winners and losers, what the mortgage surge means for affordability and investment, and the practical takeaways for anyone buying or investing in Italian property now.

Source and scope

All figures quoted are from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) release covering transactions and mortgage-secured loans in 2025. Our analysis focuses on notarised unit sales and exchange agreements for residential and economic (commercial) properties and on loans secured by real estate.

2025 at a glance: volumes, sectors and proportions

The national totals for 2025 are straightforward and useful as a baseline:

• Total notarised transactions (sales and exchanges): 986,940, up 3.9% vs 2024.
• Housing sector rose 4.0% year-on-year.
• Economic (commercial) sector rose 1.5% year-on-year.
• Mortgage-secured loans for the year: 382,389, up 15.5%.

Quarterly detail matters because it exposes where momentum is concentrated. Istat reports:

• Q3 2025 transactions: 220,404, up 2.0% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) and 5.1% year-on-year (raw).
• Q4 2025 transactions: 282,274, down 1.5% vs Q3 and down 0.9% year-on-year.

In Q4, 93.8% of transactions involved residential property (264,634 agreements), while commercial properties accounted for 5.9% (16,522 agreements) and special/multi-owned uses made up 0.4% (1,118).

These shares show the dominant role of housing in Italy’s transfer market: most of the activity, and most mortgage demand, is residential.

Quarterly and regional dynamics — a mixed picture

The national rise for 2025 masks important regional imbalances in the final quarter.

Residential sector movements in Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 (quarter-on-quarter):

• North-East: -3.3%
• South: -1.6%
• North-West: -1.0%
• Islands: -0.7%
• Centre: +2.7%

Commercial (economic) sector in Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 contracted across all macro-areas:

• North-East: -14.3%
• Centre: -10.8%
• North-West: -9.3%
• Islands: -6.7%
• South: -3.1%

Year-on-year (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024) residential changes show regional divergence:

• South: -6.4%
• North-East: -1.9%
• Centre: -0.8%
• North-West: +2.1%
• Islands: +1.5%

For the economic sector, year-on-year declines occurred in most regions except the North-East, which recorded +5.3%.

What does this mean on the ground? The North-West and Islands show relative resilience in housing activity year-on-year, while the South and parts of the North-East cooled. Commercial demand weakened broadly at year-end, suggesting either slower investor appetite for business properties or structural shifts in usage and demand.

The mortgage story: lenders are back in the market

The clearest structural signal in 2025 is the jump in mortgage-backed lending. Quarterly mortgage flows were:

• Q3 2025: 88,183 loans, a 0.2% drop on Q2 (seasonally adjusted) but +10.8% year-on-year.
• Q4 2025: 104,669 loans, up 1.4% vs Q3 and +6.1% year-on-year.

The strong annual growth in mortgage flows is visible across Italy in 2025:

• North-West: +8.9%
• North-East: +5.4%
• Islands: +5.3%
• Centre: +4.2%
• South: +3.4%
• Large cities: +6.9%; small cities: +5.6%

Put plainly, lending appetite is stronger and spread across geographies. For buyers this signals that banks and mortgage providers are active; for investors it removes one common constraint on transactions.

Our read is that the increase in mortgage-supported purchases is a key driver behind the annual rise in transactions. Lenders' willingness to extend mortgages is essential for volume, because most retail purchases rely on credit.

What buyers, investors and expats should take from these trends

We turn to practical implications and tactical considerations.

Buying residential property

• Liquidity and finance: With 382,389 mortgage-backed loans in 2025 and a 15.5% annual rise, finance is available more readily than in the prior year. That means buyers who are mortgage-ready may find lenders competitive on product availability. Mortgage approvals are not guaranteed and underwriting standards matter; prepare documentation and credit checks early.
• Location strategy: The North-West and Islands showed year-on-year increases in housing transactions. If you want resale liquidity, consider these markets. The South showed the steepest year-on-year drop in Q4 residential deals, which may translate to longer sale times.
• Seasonality and timing: Q4 volumes dipped vs Q3. If your timetable is flexible, watch quarterly trends and local market cadence; spring and early autumn often see stronger buyer activity in Italy.

Investing in commercial property

• Demand cooling: The commercial sector contracted across the board in Q4, and year-on-year falls were widespread except in the North-East. That signals caution for investors focused on traditional office or retail assets. Look for markets or asset classes within commercial real estate where demand is stable or rising — logistics, last-mile, or niche tourism-related commercial properties may be outside the scope of these numbers but warrant local research.
• Due diligence: With fewer transactions and lower liquidity in the commercial sector, pricing transparency may be thinner. Insist on detailed occupancy, lease and tenant credit reviews.

Financing and portfolio strategy

• Leverage outlook: More mortgage activity means banks are underwriting new deals. That increases competition for borrowers, which may help pricing and terms, but careful attention to interest rate floors, amortisation schedules and loan-to-value is needed.
• Diversification: Given regional divergence, spreading investment across more than one region is a way to reduce exposure to a local downturn. If your capital is limited, prioritise markets with observable demand and rental demand drivers.

For expats and cross-border buyers

• Notary and bureaucracy: Most purchases are still closed at notary with official deeds. Expect the same legal steps, and allow time for tax codes, bank relationships and mortgage approvals.
• Market access: The increase in mortgage-backed loans suggests foreign buyers can access credit if they present strong documentation and a clear income profile.