US Home Prices Rise in 71% of Metros, But a Deep Regional Split Is Growing

US housing snapshot: prices rising broadly, but the map is splitting

The latest National Association of Realtors (NAR) quarterly report shows the US real estate USA market is bi-fold right now: home prices rose year-on-year in 71% of metros, yet the gains are concentrated in specific regions while other parts of the country slide. That pattern is reshaping where buyers, landlords and investors should look this year.

In plain terms, 167 out of 235 metro areas tracked by NAR posted annual price increases last quarter, compared with 73% of metros in Q4 2025. The national median price for existing single-family homes in Q1 2026 edged up 0.5% year-over-year to $404,300. But that headline understates a widening regional divide: the Northeast and Midwest are noticeably stronger, the South barely moved, and the West recorded price declines.

Below I break down the numbers, the local drivers, and what this means for buyers and investors who are weighing markets across the United States.

What the NAR numbers tell us

The NAR report is an area-by-area read of housing price momentum. Key takeaways:

• 71% of metros (167 out of 235) saw annual price increases in Q1 2026.
• 68 metros experienced declines in prices during the same period.
• 16 metros (7%) logged double-digit annual gains, up from 5% in the prior quarter.
• The national median existing single-family price rose 0.5% to $404,300.

Regional medians show the divide clearly:

• Northeast: +4.9%, median $506,500 — the largest regional gain.
• Midwest: +3.6%, median $308,100.
• South: +0.2%, median $362,300.
• West: -2.9%, median $607,600 — the only region with a decline.

Highs and lows among metros:

• Largest annual gains: Akron, OH +12%, Anchorage, AK +10.4%, Albany, NY +9.3%.
• Largest annual drops: Decatur, IL -13.8%, Farmington, NM -10.9%, St. Croix, USVI -10.4%.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun notes that inventory shortages are driving price increases in the Northeast, while affordability is supporting gains in parts of the Midwest. He also points out the condo market is stabilizing and in some metro areas outpacing single-family home price gains — a useful nuance for entry-level buyers.

Regional analysis: why some areas are heating up and others are cooling

Housing markets are always local, and the Q1 report makes that literal. Here’s how I read the four regions.

Northeast: tight supply keeps pushing prices up

The Northeast posted the largest regional gain, +4.9%. Inventory remains thin in many older, established metro areas where housing turnover is low. That shortage of listings, combined with steady demand from buyers priced out of certain coastal markets, is sustaining price growth.

What buyers and investors should know:

• Expect competition in inventory-constrained towns and suburbs around major Northeast metros.
• Higher entry prices mean investors must focus on yield: look for areas with strong rent-to-price ratios or redevelopment potential rather than pure price appreciation.

Midwest: affordability meets momentum

The Midwest showed +3.6% median growth, with markets like Akron leading with +12%. These gains reflect relatively low entry prices and still-solid local demand from buyers seeking affordability.

Why this matters:

• Investors hunting for cash flow will find more attractive cap rates in many Midwestern metros than on the coasts.
• For owner-occupiers, the affordability buffer offers a margin of safety against rate volatility.

South: a flatline that masks city-level differences

The South’s region-wide change was a slight +0.2%, but that masks divergent city-level trends. Some Sun Belt metros are still absorbing inventory from previous construction waves, while others with strong job growth or migration continue to see price gains.

Buyer takeaways:

• Don’t treat the South as homogeneous — drill down to metro-level employment, supply and new construction data.
• In some markets, modest price growth and still-strong rents make single-family rentals a viable play.

West: the expensive coast is cooling

The West posted a -2.9% drop in median prices to $607,600, and sales activity is weaker. This region’s high baseline prices mean affordability has been strained for buyers, and that appears to have caught up with demand.

Implications:

• Cooling in the West may create buying opportunities where fundamentals remain strong — such as tech or energy employment hubs — but it also increases downside risk in overheated submarkets.
• Investors should verify local job momentum and vacancy trends before deploying capital in high-priced Western metros.

Mortgage payments and housing affordability — why more buyers can qualify now

The NAR report includes measures of what buyers actually pay each month, shedding light on affordability trends driven by mortgage rates and price moves.

• Median monthly mortgage payment for a purchased home: $1,979, assuming 20% down. That is $78 less than the previous quarter and $140 less than a year ago.
• Typical homeowners who bought last quarter spent 21.5% of their income on mortgage payments, down from 22.9% at the end of 2025 and 24.3% year-over-year.

For first-time buyers the report presents two sample scenarios:

• NAR’s illustrative example: a starter home valued at $362,800 with 10% down produced a typical mortgage of $2,146.
• A separate NAR calculation shows first-time buyers spending 32.5% of income on a $1,943 monthly mortgage for a starter home valued at $343,700 with 10% down, down from 34.6% a year earlier.

What’s happening here is clear: mortgage rates are lower than last year’s peaks, which has improved qualification prospects and reduced monthly payments even where prices have drifted higher. In our analysis that improvement in affordability is the reason more buyers have re-entered certain markets, including condos.

Condo market: stabilizing and occasionally outperforming single-family homes

Condominiums were among the weakest segments last year, hit by oversupply in some downtown markets and by buyers’ aversion to high HOA fees during uncertain times. The NAR report now finds signs of stabilization:

• In select metros, condo prices are rising faster than single-family prices.
• Improved mortgage affordability is bringing buyers back to the condo market, especially newcomers and downsizers who value location and lower maintenance responsibilities.

Investor and buyer guidance:

• Check condo association reserves, special assessments and rental rules before buying; price gains mean little if fees undercut yields.
• In rental-heavy condo markets, watch vacancy and short-term rental regulations that could affect returns.

What this means for buyers and investors — practical strategies

The split map demands a targeted approach.